Future Cards of 2012 > Shortstops
Zack Cozart SS CIN Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2007-2(79) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 2.0 .363 vs RH 25 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 1 0 .320 .560 .320 .880 3.3 .333 Total 37 12 0 0 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 .324 .486 .324 .811 2.8 .344 Grade: P77-SS
Although he is older than the other prospects, the Reds have given Zack the starting job. While they might bring in someone to take the pressure off of him, the job is his. He is reliable in the field with average range. While he doesn’t walk much, he does have some pop and 15 home runs is not out of the question. He won’t be a star, but he is better than average.
Brandon Crawford SS SF Bats: L Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-4(117) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 30 4 1 1 0 3 0 0 12 1 0 .133 .233 .212 .445 1.8 .222 vs RH 166 36 4 1 3 20 0 1 19 0 0 .217 .307 .301 .608 1.6 .229 Total 196 40 5 2 3 23 0 1 31 1 0 .204 .296 .288 .584 1.7 .228 Grade: P76-SS
Crawford has the glove you want from a shortstop, but has limited offensive ability. In fact, he may not have enough offense to keep the job even though right now he is the starter.
Chase d'Arnaud SS PIT Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-4(114) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 47 12 2 2 0 1 1 0 14 0 0 .255 .383 .286 .669 1.5 .363 vs RH 96 19 4 0 0 3 0 0 22 2 1 .198 .240 .220 .460 0.9 .253 Total 143 31 6 2 0 4 1 0 36 2 1 .217 .287 .242 .528 1.2 .287 Grade: P46-SS
The Pirates like d’Arnaud, but he has some issues. He has a strong arm, good for a shortstop, but his glove isn’t reliable. Offensively, he has some good speed, but doesn’t hit for power or average. The Pirates signed Clint Barmes for two years, so we’ll have to see what he does. He might end up a utility player.
Dee Gordon SS LAD Bats: L Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2007-2(127) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 69 19 1 0 0 3 0 0 13 0 0 .275 .290 .306 .595 1.8 .339 vs RH 155 49 8 2 0 4 0 0 14 2 0 .316 .394 .333 .727 2.6 .347 Total 224 68 9 2 0 7 0 0 27 2 0 .304 .362 .325 .686 2.2 .345 Grade: P77-SS
Gordon is a fantasy baseball delight, with excellent speed and he’ll steal plenty of bases. This isn’t Roto. This is Strat. On-base and defense count. His quickness gives him good range, but his glove isn’t terribly reliable. He’ll boot his share. He is an aggressive hitter who swings at anything in the zone. Taking a walk is not the first thing on his mind. He is the best shortstop of the bunch.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 2B MIN Bats: L Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: NDFA 2010 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 79 16 3 0 0 2 0 0 15 1 0 .203 .241 .222 .463 2.3 .250 vs RH 142 34 2 0 0 13 1 1 28 2 0 .239 .254 .308 .561 2.4 .298 Total 221 50 5 0 0 15 1 1 43 3 0 .226 .249 .278 .527 2.4 .280 Grade: P66-SS
The Twins signed the 2010 Japanese batting title winner was supposed to add a spark to the offense. Nishioka broke his leg in the sixth game of the season. When he returned, he wasn’t the same. The Twins said that they will give him a chance to win the starting shortstop job. It is really hard to make him out. He isn’t as bad as he looked. If he wins the job, he could be useful in 2012.
Name TM B T AG Draft Grade ----------------------------------------------- Dee Gordon LAD L R 22 2007-2(127) P77-SS Zack Cozart CIN R R 26 2007-2(79) P77-SS Brandon Crawford SFG L R 23 2008-4(117) P76-SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka MIN L R 27 NDFA 2010 P66-SS Chase d'Arnaud PIT R R 23 2008-4(114) P46-SS
Future Cards of 2011 > Third Base
Strat-O-Matic released their defensive ratings last week. You can find them on their website. So, I will no longer post my guesses.
Third base has been a weak position for a number of years, but that is going to change. Only Taylor Green doesn’t look to have a chance for a full-time job.
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B CLE Bats: L Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-1(29) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 50 13 2 0 5 2 0 0 14 0 0 .260 .600 .288 .888 3.6 .258 vs RH 162 41 11 0 2 6 1 1 35 1 1 .253 .358 .282 .640 0.9 .309 Total 212 54 13 0 7 8 1 1 49 1 1 .255 .415 .284 .699 1.2 .299 Grade: P77-3B
The Indians called up Lonnie Chisenhall to take over at third base and he was acceptable. He has a solid left-handed bat with 20 home run power. He isn’t a stud defender, but no one questions that he is a third baseman. He’ll probably sit against good left-handed pitching. He is a solid, everyday third baseman, but not a star.
Matt Dominguez 3B FLA Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2007-1(12) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 18 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .389 .556 .389 .944 3.0 .466 vs RH 27 4 1 0 0 2 1 0 5 0 0 .148 .185 .233 .419 1.3 .181 Total 45 11 4 0 0 2 1 0 8 0 0 .244 .333 .292 .625 1.7 .297 Grade: P67-3B
If you are looking for a solid defensive third baseman, then you are looking for Matt Dominguez. Unfortunately, hitting just isn’t his forte. The Marlins believe he will hit, but many other scouts feel differently. For you, he is a defensive backup like Jack Hannahan where you’d be happy with .250/10.
Taylor Green 3B MIL Bats: L Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2005-25(745) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH No At-Bats vs RH 37 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .270 .351 .270 .622 1.8 .322 Total 37 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .270 .351 .270 .622 1.8 .322 Grade: P66-3B
A broken wrist sapped the power and the prospect status from Taylor Green, but his excellent work ethic has given him a second chance. He crushed Triple-A pitching, hitting .336 with 22 home runs. With the signing of Aramis Ramirez he is no longer looked at as a potential starting third baseman, but with the trade of Casey McGehee means that a backup third baseman is needed.
Brett Lawrie 3B TOR Bats: R Throws: R Age: 20 Draft: 2008-1(16) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 44 13 3 0 1 4 0 1 10 1 0 .295 .432 .354 .786 0.7 .363 vs RH 106 31 5 4 8 12 3 0 21 1 0 .292 .642 .380 1.022 1.3 .298 Total 150 44 8 4 9 16 3 1 31 2 0 .293 .580 .373 .953 0.8 .318 Grade: B88-3B
Prior to 2010, there were two negatives for Brett Lawrie. His was without a position and didn’t have great power. He answered both of those questions in 2011. Lawrie has taken to third base and looks to be a solid defender. Power? He his .353 with 18 home runs in Triple-A and followed up with a .293 with nine home runs in 150 at-bats. He looks to be a solid first-round pick.
Alex Liddi 3B SEA Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: NDFA 2006 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 6 2 0 2 3 0 0 4 0 0 .429 1.000 .529 1.529 1.0 .500 vs RH 26 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 13 0 0 .115 .269 .148 .417 2.0 .166 Total 40 9 3 0 3 3 1 0 17 0 0 .225 .525 .295 .820 1.8 .300 Grade: P67-3B
Liddi is the first Italian national to play in the Major Leagues. He has the body and bat speed, but lacks the experience. He hit 30 home runs in Triple-A as a 22 year-old, but also struck out 170 times. He is a stash away player, because it will take him a couple of years.
Mike Moustakas 3B KC Bats: L Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2007-1(2) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 89 17 4 0 0 7 1 0 15 1 0 .191 .236 .258 .494 2.5 .229 vs RH 249 72 14 1 5 15 0 0 36 1 2 .289 .414 .327 .741 0.8 .319 Total 338 89 18 1 5 22 1 0 51 2 2 .263 .367 .309 .675 1.2 .295 Grade: P77-3B
The second overall pick in 2007, Mike Moustakas has had an up-and-down trip through the minor leagues. He crushed Double-A pitching as a 21 year-old in 2010, but 2011 was more in line with previous years. He is a below average defender, so third may not be his home forever. He has a power bat once he figures it out even if it is at first or DH.
Jimmy Paredes 3B HOU Bats: S Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: NDFA 2008 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 8 1 0 0 2 0 0 9 0 0 .216 .243 .256 .500 5.7 .285 vs RH 131 40 7 2 2 7 0 0 38 1 1 .305 .435 .338 .773 1.7 .413 Total 168 48 8 2 2 9 0 0 47 1 1 .286 .393 .320 .713 1.8 .383 Grade: P76-3B
The Astros have said that Paredes is the starting third baseman for 2012. He is a young, athletic and fast for a third baseman. That probably doesn’t make up for his lack of power. He’s one of those players that has more value in fantasy baseball where the stolen bases really mean something.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade ------------------------------------------------ Brett Lawrie TOR R R 20 2008-1(16) B88-3B Mike Moustakas KCR L R 23 2007-1(2) P77-3B Lonnie Chisenhall CLE L R 23 2008-1(29) P77-3B Matt Dominguez FLA R R 22 2007-1(12) P67-3B Alex Liddi SEA R R 23 NDFA 2006 P67-3B Jimmy Paredes HOU S R 22 NDFA 2008 P76-3B Taylor Green MIL L R 25 2005-25(745) P66-3B ------------------------------------------------
Future Prospects of 2011 > Second Base
I fixed a problem with the first baseman. The left-handed stats were all to the side. It looks much better now.
This week we are looking at the second baseman from a Strat-O-Matic perspective where defense is as important as offense and on-base beats batting average any day. The new cards this year look pretty promising here.
Dustin Ackley 2B SEA Bats: L Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2009-1(2) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 85 19 4 1 2 8 0 0 27 0 1 .224 .365 .287 .652 1.4 .298 vs RH 248 72 12 6 4 32 0 1 52 0 2 .290 .435 .369 .804 0.8 .350 Total 333 91 16 7 6 40 0 1 79 0 3 .273 .417 .348 .766 0.7 .338 Grade: B88-2B 2B-4
A couple of year’s back I rated Dustin Pedroia really high and drafted him on all my teams. I even picked him up in the fourth round of a 30-team league, because I was alone in thinking he was going to be a great Strat-O-Matic player. The reason why I like Pedroia was his unusually good hand eye coordination. Despite a lack in size, hand eye coordination would win out. Ackley has that kind of coordination, except he isn’t 5-foot-9. Unfortunately, Ackley doesn’t have Pedroia’s “Laser Lightshow” defense. Despite that, he has an impact bat and that will go a long way towards helping a team.
Ryan Adams 2B BAL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2006-2(58) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 27 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .370 .407 .370 .778 2.3 .476 vs RH 62 15 3 0 0 6 1 0 19 0 0 .242 .290 .319 .609 2.4 .348 Total 89 25 4 0 0 6 1 0 25 0 0 .281 .326 .333 .659 2.1 .390 Grade: P55-2B 2B-4
Adams has had an interesting trip through the minor leagues. He was a bit too motivated when he signed and bulked up too much. He’s had some discipline issues. He is weak defensively at both third and second. He did hit .281 in sporadic play but he might be considered for the starting job at second if Brian Roberts is hurt again.
Jose Altuve 2B HOU Bats: R Throws: R Age: 20 Draft: NDFA 2008 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 53 17 2 0 1 3 0 0 7 3 1 .321 .415 .351 .766 1.8 .347 vs RH 168 44 8 1 1 2 2 0 22 2 0 .262 .339 .279 .618 2.0 .296 Total 221 61 10 1 2 5 2 0 29 5 1 .276 .357 .297 .654 1.9 .308 Grade: P77-2B 2B-2
It is very difficult to project Jose Altuve. He stands at 5-foot-7 making him the shortest player in baseball. Scouts prefer size. On the other hand, his baseball instincts are excellent. He is solid defensively. He is very hard to strike out. He doesn’t make mistakes on the base paths. Probably the biggest knock on him long-term is Delino DeShields Jr. DeShields is the second baseman of the future, but just turned 19. In the meantime, Houston doesn’t have much talent so Altuve’s spark plug play should get plenty of at-bats.
Ivan De Jesus 2B LAD Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2005-2(51) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 7 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 .286 .286 .444 .730 3.0 .400 vs RH 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 0 .160 .160 .160 .320 1.2 .250 Total 32 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 11 1 0 .188 .188 .235 .423 1.4 .285 Grade: P55-2B 2B-3
Dejesus missed all of 2009 with a broken leg and that ruined his chance at a full-time job. The Dodgers needed help as second and he didn’t get a real look. That’s all you really need to know.
Brad Emaus 2B NYM Bats: R Throws: R Age: 24 Draft: 2007-11(355) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 1.5 .333 vs RH 29 4 0 0 0 4 1 1 7 0 0 .138 .138 .265 .403 2.0 .181 Total 37 6 0 0 0 4 1 1 9 0 0 .162 .162 .262 .424 1.7 .214 Grade: P55-2B 2B-4
Surprisingly, Brad Emaus won the second base job out of spring training but didn’t hit. He has a good batting eye, but not much else. After loosing his job, the Mets didn’t just send him down, they designated him for assignment and the Rockies picked him up. This may be his only card for his career.
Johnny Giavotella 2B KC Bats: R Throws: R Age: 24 Draft: 2008-2(49) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 42 11 0 2 1 3 0 0 6 0 0 .262 .429 .311 .740 1.8 .285 vs RH 136 33 9 2 1 3 1 0 26 0 2 .243 .360 .261 .621 1.1 .288 Total 178 44 9 4 2 6 1 0 32 0 2 .247 .376 .273 .649 1.3 .287 Grade: P78-2B 2B-4
Giavotella can flat out hit. He hit .338 in Triple-A. It all comes down to his defense. It was a weak point before, but he’s improved. Can he make it a 2b-3? Don’t know. You can play a 2b-3 if he hits .300.
Jason Kipnis 2B CLE Bats: L Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2009-2(63) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 38 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 10 0 0 .263 .395 .349 .744 2.2 .333 vs RH 98 27 7 1 6 6 2 0 24 0 1 .276 .551 .327 .878 1.9 .304 Total 136 37 9 1 7 11 2 0 34 0 1 .272 .507 .333 .841 1.5 .312 Grade: P77-2B 2B-4
Kipnis is a former outfielder who was moved to second base in part due to a weak arm. While he has taken to the position nicely, he is still learning on the job. I suspect he’ll be a 2b-4 and eventually becoming a 2b-3. He has more power than Giavotella.
DJ LeMahieu 2B CHC Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2009-2(79) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 24 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .292 .375 .292 .667 3.7 .350 vs RH 36 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 1 0 .222 .222 .243 .465 3.2 .285 Total 60 15 2 0 0 1 0 0 12 1 0 .250 .283 .262 .546 3.5 .312 Grade: P67-2B 2B-4
Another good hitter with weak defensive skills, the Cubs believe that he’ll generate more power once he gets a bit bigger. Defense is a concern. He has a strong arm to play third, but without power, he isn’t an ideal candidate there. Drafting him means you hope he develops.
Cord Phelps 2B CLE Bats: S Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-3(107) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 10 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 1 0 .100 .100 .250 .350 0.5 .166 vs RH 61 10 2 1 1 6 0 0 13 0 0 .164 .279 .239 .517 1.1 .191 Total 71 11 2 1 1 8 0 0 17 1 0 .155 .254 .241 .494 0.9 .188 Grade: P66-2B 2B-3
Phelps this the third best infield prospect behind Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall. That means that he’ll need one of those two to fail or get hurt to get regular playing time.
Justin Turner 2B NYM Bats: R Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: 2006-7(2004) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 124 29 8 0 0 15 3 1 18 0 0 .234 .298 .331 .629 1.2 .273 vs RH 311 84 22 0 4 24 7 1 41 2 1 .270 .379 .335 .715 1.7 .299 Total 435 113 30 0 4 39 10 2 59 2 1 .260 .356 .334 .690 1.3 .292 Grade: V76-2B 2B-3
Turner is on the cusp of being listed as a utility infielder. He is capable at second and third, but doesn’t have the power you want from the corner. At 27 years-old, he won’t have much of a career, but his card is good enough to fill in for a year if your primary 2B is developing or was hurt last year.
Jemile Weeks 2B OAK Bats: S Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-1(12) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 129 37 9 2 0 6 0 0 17 2 1 .287 .388 .316 .704 0.7 .327 vs RH 277 86 17 6 2 15 4 1 45 0 3 .310 .437 .351 .788 1.0 .360 Total 406 123 26 8 2 21 4 1 62 2 4 .303 .421 .340 .761 0.8 .349 Grade: P77-2B 2B-4
It is rather interesting. Jemile is similar to his brother Rickie. Drafted first round, will hit for more power than his size, excellent bat speed and can’t stay off the DL. Defensively, he is also similar to Rickie, stuck as a 2B-4 with the hope of a 2B-3.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade Def ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dustin Ackley SEA L R 22 2009-1(2) B88-2B 2B-4 Johnny Giavotella KCR R R 24 2008-2(49) P78-2B 2B-4 Jason Kipnis CLE L R 23 2009-2(63) P78-2B 2B-4 Jemile Weeks OAK S R 23 2008-1(12) P77-2B 2B-4 Jose Altuve HOU R R 20 NDFA 2008 P77-2B 2B-2 DJ LeMahieu CHC R R 23 2009-2(79) P67-2B 2B-4 Ryan Adams BAL R R 23 2006-2(58) P55-2B 2B-4 Justin Turner NYM R R 27 2006-7(2004) V76-2B 2B-3 Cord Phelps CLE S R 23 2008-3(107) P66-2B 2B-3 Ivan De Jesus LAD R R 23 2005-2(51) P55-2B 2B-3 Brad Emaus NYM R R 24 2007-11(355) P55-2B 2B-4
Future Prospect of 2011 > First Base
After a number of quiet years, first base is a strong position for the 2011 set with a number of players who will have an immediate impact on a Strat-O-Matic team. Let’s get right down to business.
Brandon Belt 1B SFG Bats: L Throws: L Age: 23 Draft: 2009-5(147) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 46 16 2 0 2 4 1 0 15 0 0 .348 .522 .412 .934 0.9 .482 vs RH 141 26 4 1 7 16 1 1 42 0 0 .184 .376 .272 .648 1.4 .206 Total 187 42 6 1 9 20 2 1 57 0 0 .225 .412 .306 .718 1.0 .272 Grade: P77-1B/OF 1B-2 LF/RF-3(-1)
I saw Belt last year in the Arizona Fall League. Many of my colleagues were hemming and hawing about him, but I wasn’t nearly as impressed. He doesn’t have the power that you are looking for as a first baseman. He was a high-school pitcher with a high-80’s fastball, so he has the arm strength to play outfield. Belt is the fastest first baseman I’m writing about today. When it comes down to it, I’m not sure why he isn’t an outfielder. He has the speed and arm for the job. If he stays at first, he has a chance to win a Gold Glove, so I’m going to give him a 1B-2. He traditionally has not had a platoon split, so you don’t have to worry about carrying a spare right-handed hitting first baseman. If the Giants announce that he’s going to stay in the outfield, he’ll move up this list.
Eric Hosmer 1B KCR Bats: L Throws: L Age: 21 Draft: 2008-1(3) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 152 36 5 1 1 10 0 0 27 0 1 .237 .303 .282 .585 2.4 .280 vs RH 371 117 22 2 18 24 1 7 55 0 4 .315 .531 .355 .886 1.7 .327 Total 523 153 27 3 19 34 1 7 82 0 5 .293 .465 .334 .799 1.4 .313 Grade: B88-1B 1B-4
Hosmer is the complete package. He has both the ability to hit for power and for average with a sweet swing. Pitch it inside and he’ll go the other way. Although he stole 11 bases, he has below average speed. He is just a smart base runner. Defensively, he’ll grow into the position. He did boot eight balls, but he looks to have good range. The Royals forced him to cover the line more, so he has a weak plus/minus. The only knock on him is a poor platoon split, but that shouldn’t be an issue in the future. He is a sure top-five pick.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARZ Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2009-8(246) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 6 2 0 2 6 0 0 13 0 0 .162 .378 .279 .657 2.0 .181 vs RH 119 33 7 1 6 14 0 0 40 0 1 .277 .504 .351 .855 1.2 .364 Total 156 39 9 1 8 20 0 0 53 0 1 .250 .474 .333 .808 1.2 .322 Grade: P77-1B 1B-4
Goldschmidt has serious power and had a great two months for the Diamondbacks. There are some concerns with him, however. He has always struggled with the strikeouts. He did make great improvements in Double-A, but still struck out 145 times in 522 at-bats combined between the Majors and Double-A. Defensively, he is below average. He is also a bit older than his competition. While he promises solid power, he does have some holes in his game.
Jesus Guzman 1B SDP Bats: S Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: NDFA 2000 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 93 31 8 1 2 8 0 2 16 0 0 .333 .505 .386 .892 1.3 .386 vs RH 154 46 14 1 3 14 1 0 27 0 1 .299 .461 .359 .820 1.6 .344 Total 247 77 22 2 5 22 1 2 43 0 1 .312 .478 .369 .847 1.1 .360 Grade: V66-1B 1B-3 LF/RF-4(+1)
Guzman will have a pretty nice card, but he is 27. He always could hit like this but was never given the chance. Draft him for his card, but don’t expect 200+ at-bats next year.
David Cooper 1B TOR Bats: L Throws: L Age: 24 Draft: 2008-1(17) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .286 .429 .286 .714 1.0 .333 vs RH 57 11 5 0 2 7 1 0 12 0 2 .193 .386 .284 .670 1.1 .200 Total 71 15 7 0 2 7 1 0 14 0 2 .211 .394 .284 .678 1.0 .228 Grade: P67-1B 1B-4
A first-round pick in 2008, Cooper was expected to be an impact bat by now. He struggled in Double-A in 2009 and repeated the level. In 2010, the power improved, but he still hit .257. He played in Triple-A last year and the power was missing, but he hit .364 and walked more than he struck out. Defensive skills and speed are below average, so he needs to crank to make it. He did crush a 98 MPH fastball during his September cup of coffee, so he has the goods. He just needs to put things together. Because there are other more exciting options, he’ll slip to the middle the draft, but he could be a solid Major League 1B/DH once he figures it out.
Freddie Freeman 1B ATL Bats: L Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: 2007-2(78) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 186 46 8 0 7 13 3 0 55 0 2 .247 .403 .304 .707 1.6 .309 vs RH 385 115 24 0 14 40 3 3 87 0 3 .299 .470 .367 .837 1.4 .351 Total 571 161 32 0 21 53 6 3 142 0 5 .282 .448 .346 .795 1.2 .338 Grade: B88-1B 1B-3
A 21-year-old hit .282 with 21 homeruns his rookie season and isn’t the first overall pick? Nope. He didn’t win the NL ROY? Nope. Still, there is much to like in Freddie Freeman. He is a solid defensive first-baseman who spreads the ball around and should hit for good average. He has 20 HR power, but his body type isn’t once that indicates that he’ll be a real masher. You’re looking at .300/25 and a solid 1B-1/2. His card is probably one that will require a solid right-handed bat off the bench to platoon with him. Against right-handers, he is a good #6 hitter.
Anthony Rizzo 1B SDP Bats: L Throws: L Age: 21 Draft: 2007-6(204) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 29 5 2 0 1 3 1 0 9 0 0 .172 .345 .273 .618 3.7 .210 vs RH 99 13 6 1 0 18 3 1 37 0 0 .131 .212 .283 .495 1.0 .209 Total 128 18 8 1 1 21 4 1 46 0 0 .141 .242 .281 .523 1.1 .209 Grade: P78-1B 1B-4
Rizzo is a top power prospect who hit .331 with 26 HR in 356 Triple-A at-bats as a 21-year-old. He then hit just .141 with a single home run. He did walk 21 times in 128 at-bats, which is a good sign. Rizzo had a history in the minors of struggling against left-handers, but he hit better in his short Major League experience. That is if you consider .172 better. Defensively, he is a average first baseman, but prone to the occasional mental error. It is hard to tell why he fared so poorly. He certainly has the tools to be a solid power hitting first baseman.
Chris Parmelee 1B MIN Bats: L Throws: L Age: 23 Draft: 2006-1(20) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 19 6 4 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 .316 .526 .409 .935 2.3 .400 vs RH 57 21 2 0 4 9 0 0 9 0 0 .368 .614 .455 1.069 0.8 .386 Total 76 27 6 0 4 12 0 0 13 0 0 .355 .592 .443 1.035 1.0 .389 Grade: P77-1B 1B-4
Although he is only 23, Chris Parmelee was a first-round pick in 2006 and hadn’t made it past Double-A yet. He had a lack luster Double-A campaign in 2010 and repeated the level in 2011. There was some improvement, but 13 home runs in 530 at-bats is not the performance you are looking for from a first baseman. Then, he gets called up and hits like crazy. He ended the season hitting .355 with 4 home runs giving him a wonderful pinch-hitting goon card. More importantly, that performance gives him a real opportunity this spring. On the one hand, he was a first-round pick and has a sweet swing. On the other, he has never done this before. Is he a late bloomer that just needed to be motivated? Pick him in the fifth round and see what he does. The .390 BABIP leans toward fluke.
Brett Pill 1B SFG Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2006-7(206) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 28 7 3 0 1 1 0 0 7 0 0 .250 .464 .276 .740 4.0 .300 vs RH 22 8 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .364 .682 .375 1.057 0.8 .333 Total 50 15 3 2 2 2 0 0 8 0 1 .300 .560 .321 .881 1.3 .317 Grade: V55-1B 1B-4
Pill was called up for a September callup and hit well, including a home run in his very first at-bat. He is old and doesn’t have the power you want from first base. At best he’ll earn a bench job as a pinch hitter. He’ll have a nice pinch hitting card.
Mark Hamilton 1B STL Bats: L Throws: L Age: 26 Draft: 2006-2(76) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .182 .182 .182 .364 6.0 .250 vs RH 36 8 3 0 0 4 0 0 13 0 0 .222 .306 .300 .606 0.7 .347 Total 47 10 3 0 0 4 0 0 16 0 0 .213 .277 .275 .551 1.2 .322 Grade: X44-1B 1B-4
Hamilton received a couple of unexpected call-ups due to Albert Pujols’ injury. At 26, the Cardinals are not looking to him at this point to replace Pujols if Pujols doesn’t re-sign. He did hit for high average, but the power disappeared in Triple-A. Keep an eye on him if his status changes, but I expect the Cardinals to sign a free agent instead of looking to Hamilton.
Chris Marrero 1B WSH Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2006-1(15) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 16 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 .313 .438 .294 .732 1.0 .384 vs RH 93 22 3 0 0 4 1 0 23 0 2 .237 .269 .270 .539 1.0 .305 Total 109 27 5 0 0 4 1 0 27 0 3 .248 .294 .274 .567 1.0 .317 Grade: P67-1B 1B-4
A first-round pick in 2006, Marrero was supposed to develop into a power hitter, but his swing is long. Defensively, he is below average. Although he has been in the minors a long time, he is still only 23 years old and still has some time to develop. The question is whether the Nationals will wait or if they will sign someone now.
Mark Trumbo 1B LAA Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2004-18(533) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 178 47 10 0 8 8 0 3 46 0 2 .264 .455 .293 .748 1.6 .309 vs RH 361 90 21 1 21 17 5 3 74 0 2 .249 .488 .291 .778 2.0 .257 Total 539 137 31 1 29 25 5 6 120 0 4 .254 .477 .291 .768 1.8 .274 Grade: P77-1B/3B 1B-4 LF/RF-4(0)
I didn’t expect Mark Trumbo to hit like he did. He does have good power, but he strikes out too much and I didn’t expect him to hit for average. .254 isn’t bad for a rookie and the 29 home runs are nice. A former pitcher, he has a strong arm, so the Angels are going to try move him to third base as least some of the time. He has the arm, but I question his range. He doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for average, but he’ll hit a mistake a mile. I think what you see is what you get.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade Def ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Hosmer KCR L L 21 2008-1(3) B88-1B 1B-4 Freddie Freeman ATL L R 21 2007-2(78) B88-1B 1B-3 Brandon Belt SFG L L 23 2009-5(147) P77-1B/OF 1B-2 LF/RF-3(-1) Paul Goldschmidt ARZ R R 23 2009-8(246) P77-1B 1B-4 Anthony Rizzo SDP L L 21 2007-6(204) P77-1B 1B-4 Mark Trumbo LAA R R 25 2004-18(533) P77-1B/3B 1B-4 LF/RF-4(0) David Cooper TOR L L 24 2008-1(17) P67-1B 1B-4 Chris Marrero WSH R R 22 2006-1(15) P67-1B 1B-4 Chris Parmelee MIN L L 23 2006-1(20) P77-1B 1B-4 Brett Pill SFG R R 26 2006-7(206) V55-1B 1B-4 Jesus Guzman SDP S R 27 NDFA 2000 V66-1B 1B-3 LF/RF-4(+1) Mark Hamilton STL L L 26 2006-2(76) X44-1B 1B-4 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
Future Cards of 2011 > Catchers
Okay, here we go. The first set of prospects and as I always do it is the catchers. A good catcher is critical to Strat-O-Matic. Let me say it, a good catcher is more important than a good shortstop. In my analysis of the defensive charts, when you combine the arm and range of a catcher, that player is more important than a shortstop. The difference between a C-2 and C-4 is huge because of all the passed balls and wild pitches that player gives up. The difference between a -2 and +2 is something I shouldn’t have to explain. Therefore, I always start with the catchers.
Right away it was obvious that the rookie crop was not going to be as good as last year. Last year was huge for catchers. I didn’t expect to find much here because there were no catchers with 300 or more at-bats. Still, there are some interesting prospects for the later rounds, if you are willing to wait a couple of years.
Let’s begin…
Robinson Chirinos C TBY Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: NDFA 2000 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .500 .833 0.0 .500 vs RH 52 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 12 0 0 .212 .308 .268 .576 3.4 .256 Total 55 12 2 0 1 5 0 0 13 0 0 .218 .309 .283 .592 1.3 .268 Grade: P44-UI C-4(+2)
Chirinos put himself on the radar with a strong spring performance and almost made the roster for Opening Day. A former infielder, Chirinos converted to catcher in 2008, so he is an interesting backup catcher who can also play other infield positions. It also means that he is not terribly slow for a catcher, but not a threat to steal. Defensively, base runners pretty much ran at will against him. He was only able to throw out two runners in 23 attempts. Because of that inability to control the running game, he was sent down when John Jaso returned from the DL. If he can improve behind the plate, he can hit a little bit and is versatile enough to warrant a second chance as a backup catcher.
Hank Conger C LAA Bats: S Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2006-1(25) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 .182 .182 .357 .539 1.0 .250 vs RH 166 35 8 0 6 14 1 1 34 2 0 .211 .367 .276 .644 1.4 .230 Total 177 37 8 0 6 17 1 2 37 2 0 .209 .356 .282 .638 0.9 .231 Grade: P77-CA C-4(+2)
The fantasy world was all over Hank Conger when he was called up. He hit with authority and looked like a stud fantasy catcher. The slump started in June and by mid-July he was back in Triple-A. He was only successful throwing out 12 runners in 65 attempts, so you are looking at a +2 or +3 arm. Conger can flat out hit and it is his bat that will get him playing time. The catcher situation with the Angels is bad enough that if Conger can just improve slightly, he’ll be a regular. I expect him to do so.
Carlos Corporan C HOU Bats: S Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: Draft 2003-12(339) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 9 3 0 0 5 1 1 14 2 0 .243 .324 .349 .673 7.5 .391 vs RH 117 20 5 1 0 5 3 3 35 1 2 .171 .231 .220 .451 1.0 .238 Total 154 29 8 1 0 10 4 4 49 3 2 .188 .253 .253 .506 1.1 .271 Grade: X11-CA C-5(+3)
The Astros are the classic example of what happens to a Strat-O-Matic team without a good catcher. The injury to Jason Castro and the developmental failure of J.R. Towles meant that Corporan, an organizational player, was given 154 Mendoza Line at-bats. Corporan gave up 43 stolen bases in only 50 games! He’ll be at least a C-4(+3) if not a C-5(+5). You are better off playing your DH out of position than putting Corporan behind the dish. The only good thing about him is his ability to get in the way of the ball. No, I don’t mean blocking wild pitches, I mean hit by pitches when he is at the plate.
Tony Cruz C STL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2007-26(802) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 7 2 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 .269 .346 .321 .668 0.8 .280 vs RH 39 10 3 0 0 4 1 0 12 0 0 .256 .333 .341 .674 0.8 .370 Total 65 17 5 0 0 6 1 1 13 0 0 .262 .338 .333 .672 0.6 .326 Grade: P55-CA C-4(+1), 2B-4, 3B-4, RF-4(+1)
Tony Cruz is an interesting story. Any player drafted as late as the 26th round and makes the Majors is a good story. Not a good prospect, he played well enough that he passed Bryan Anderson on the prospect chart. Playing behind Yadier Molina means that he won’t get much playing time. Fortunately, Cruz is a former third baseman, so he saw time at first, second, third and right-field. He has a strong arm and is capable of hitting .250 with a handful of home runs.
Tyler Flowers C CWS Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2005-33(1007) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 5 0 0 1 3 1 0 14 0 1 .135 .216 .214 .431 0.6 .173 vs RH 73 18 5 1 4 11 2 0 24 0 1 .247 .507 .356 .863 1.0 .304 Total 110 23 5 1 5 14 3 0 38 0 2 .209 .409 .310 .719 0.7 .260 Grade: P66-CA C-4(+1)
The White Sox were hoping that Tyler Flowers would take over a majority of the playing time behind the plate by now, but it hasn’t worked out as expected. Flowers has above average power and isn’t afraid to take a walk, but he is slow. Very slow. 1-8 or 1-9 slow. He does have a strong arm behind the plate, although his performance wasn’t great. Basically, he is similar to J.P. Arencibia. He’ll hit about .240 with up to 20 home runs.
Ryan Lavarnway C BOS Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-6(2002) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 17 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 .294 .647 .333 .980 0.5 .230 vs RH 22 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 8 0 0 .182 .273 .280 .553 0.8 .285 Total 39 9 2 0 2 4 0 0 10 0 0 .231 .436 .302 .738 0.6 .259 Grade: P77-1B C-4(+1) *GOON CARD VS. LH*
Players like Lavarnway are hard to evaluate. He is seen as one of the Red Sox’s best hitters in the minors, but he has never been a starting catcher up to this point. When he was drafted, it was assumed that he wouldn’t make behind the plate, but with hard work, he has hung on. That doesn’t mean that he is a great catcher. The kid can flat out hit. He hit 32 home runs combined between Double and Triple-A. He is the best hitting backup in all of baseball. He is brutally slow. He’s worth an earlier round pick based upon his bat, but I don’t think he’ll remain a catcher and he doesn’t have earlier round value unless he’s behind the plate.
Jose Lobaton C TB C BOS Bats: S Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: NDFA 2002 SDP Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 20 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 .150 .200 .190 .390 4.3 .166 vs RH 14 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 6 0 0 .071 .071 .278 .349 0.4 .125 Total 34 4 1 0 0 4 1 0 8 0 0 .118 .147 .231 .378 1.7 .153 Grade: V44-CA C-3(0)
Lobaton is a decent defensive catcher who has been known to have good patience with the bat and will hit the occasional home run. He doesn’t have the skills for an everyday job, so he’ll hang around in Triple-A as an organization’s #3 or #4 catcher on the roster.
Luis Martinez C SD Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2007-12(387) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 3 1 1 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 .214 .429 .313 .741 0.0 .333 vs RH 45 9 0 0 1 7 0 2 9 0 0 .200 .267 .308 .574 2.9 .228 Total 59 12 1 1 1 8 1 2 14 0 0 .203 .305 .309 .614 1.5 .250 Grade: V55-CA C-4(+1)
Martinez served as the Padres’ #3 catcher and saw extended time on the Major League roster due to injuries. He did hit .323 in limited at-bats in Triple-A. His card against left-handers is almost goon like with a double and triple in just 14 at-bats. As best, he develops into a #2 catcher, but #3 is probably his role.
Michael McKenry C PIT Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2006-7(198) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 42 7 3 0 0 6 0 1 15 2 2 .167 .238 .260 .498 2.3 .241 vs RH 138 33 9 0 2 8 0 1 34 3 0 .239 .348 .281 .629 0.8 .303 Total 180 40 12 0 2 14 0 2 49 5 2 .222 .322 .276 .598 0.8 .290 Grade: P56-CA C-3(+1)
McKenry had a decent year and has a good chance of being the #2 catcher for the Pirates next year. He has a strong arm and some pop. He is going to meet with manager in the off-season to work on his hitting. So when your manager has his eye on you, that is a good sign. Both Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit will be free agents, so there is some remote chance that McKenry could end up the #1 if the team can’t sign a #1.
Devin Mesoraco C CIN Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2007-1(15) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .250 .375 .250 .625 0.7 .285 vs RH 42 7 2 0 2 3 0 1 9 0 0 .167 .357 .222 .579 1.9 .161 Total 50 9 3 0 2 3 0 1 10 0 0 .180 .360 .226 .586 0.9 .184 Grade: P67-CA C-3(+1)
If you take two players with identical tools and make one a catcher, it is going to take longer for the catcher to reach his potential. The position is much harder to master. Mesoraco was drafted 15th overall in 2007 and only just started to show some potential. To give you an idea of how things have gone for him, Mesoraco was the Reds 30th prospect according to Baseball America in 2010 and jumped to #3 in to2011. The Reds like him more than the scouts. He has power and a strong arm, but still needs work refining his game behind the plate.
Jesus Montero C NYY Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 24 12 3 0 0 3 0 1 6 0 0 .500 .625 .556 1.181 1.0 .666 vs RH 37 8 1 0 4 4 1 1 11 0 0 .216 .568 .310 .877 2.4 .181 Total 61 20 4 0 4 7 1 2 17 0 0 .328 .590 .406 .996 1.4 .400 Grade: B78-CA/DH C-4(+2)
Montero is a name you should know. The top Yankee prospect, he can hit with authority. If all we cared about was his bat, he’d be the #1 prospect easily, but this is Strat-O-Matic and defense counts. Unfortunately, Montero’s glove has lagged far behind his bat. That is why the Yankee signed Russ Martin. That is why the Yankees were willing to trade him in the right deal. The good news is that the Yankees are looking at him as their full-time DH next year. He should get some quality at-bats and still count as a #2 catcher.
Mike Nickeas C NYM Bats: R Throws: R Age: 28 Draft: 2004-5(141) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 3 1 0 .115 .269 .207 .476 0.5 .090 vs RH 27 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 1 0 .259 .259 .286 .545 3.7 .368 Total 53 10 1 0 1 4 0 0 11 2 0 .189 .264 .246 .510 0.8 .219 Grade: X11-CA C-3(+1)
Nickeas was the Mets’ fourth string catcher and found himself on the Major League roster due to some injuries. He’s not likely to get more than a handful of at-bats next year.
Jordan Pacheco C COL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2007-9(282) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 10 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 .385 .538 .407 .946 1.0 .409 vs RH 58 14 0 0 1 2 1 0 6 0 0 .241 .293 .279 .572 3.6 .254 Total 84 24 1 0 2 3 1 0 9 0 0 .286 .369 .318 .687 1.8 .301 Grade: P66-UI CA-4(+2), 1B-3, 2B-4, 3B-5.
A pleasant surprise, Jordan Pacheco hit well enough and has enough flexibility that his role on the team next year is pretty much assured. A former infielder, Pacheco converted to catching in 2008. He has made great strides there, but he doesn’t have the skills of a full-timer. His solid line-drive bat and position flexibility make him interesting. NL teams need player like Pacheco who can pinch-hit and play multiple positions. He could be a solid hitting bench card and cover a number of spots at a backup.
Salvador Perez C KC Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 31 15 3 1 1 4 0 0 1 0 0 .484 .742 .543 1.285 1.3 .482 vs RH 117 34 5 1 2 3 1 0 19 0 2 .291 .402 .309 .711 1.3 .326 Total 148 49 8 2 3 7 1 0 20 0 2 .331 .473 .361 .834 1.1 .362 Grade: P77-CA C-3(-1)
The Royals have been patiently waiting for Perez to develop and it looks like it has finally happened. Perez was the top catcher prospect in the system until the Royals drafted Wil Myers. A little competition seems to be what Perez needed and he has developed nicely. Now Myers has been moved to the outfield. Perez has an above-average arm but a very quick release giving him a -1 to -2 arm rating behind the plate. Hitting wise, he takes advantage of the whole field and he has some developing power. He is very slow, however. If he continues to develop and doesn’t put on weight, Perez looks like a solid everyday catcher.
Kyle Phillips C SD Bats: L Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: 2002-10(302) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 5 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 .200 .800 .333 1.133 2.0 .000 vs RH 71 12 3 0 1 7 1 1 17 0 0 .169 .254 .253 .507 0.5 .207 Total 76 13 3 0 2 8 1 1 19 0 0 .171 .289 .259 .548 0.5 .200 Grade: X11-CA C-3(+1)
Phillips is a journeyman catcher in the San Diego system who will only get promoted if a veteran goes down.
Rene Rivera C MIN Bats: R Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: 2001-2(49) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 28 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 5 0 0 .179 .321 .233 .555 1.5 .181 vs RH 76 10 2 0 0 6 1 0 27 0 1 .132 .158 .202 .360 1.1 .200 Total 104 15 3 0 1 8 1 0 32 0 1 .144 .202 .211 .412 1.0 .194 Grade: X11-CA C-4(+1)
Rivera was last carded in 2006, but he only hit .152 so it is unlikely anyone still has him on their roster. Rivera only hit .144 the second time, so he is due for his next card in 2016. He’ll be 32 then, but as a veteran organizational catcher, he might still be plugging away in the minors.
Wilin Rosario C COL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 4 1 1 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 .286 .714 .375 1.089 0.7 .333 vs RH 40 7 2 0 2 0 0 0 16 0 1 .175 .375 .171 .546 1.6 .217 Total 54 11 3 1 3 2 0 0 20 0 1 .204 .463 .228 .691 1.1 .250 Grade: P77-CA C-3(-1)
Rosario would have been on the Major League roster this year if he didn’t tear his ACL in 2010. He has an excellent package of skills. He has an above average arm. He threw out 5-of-7 after his September call-up. He has solid power, hitting 21 home runs and should hit for good average. He has the standard negatives you find in most catchers. He is slow and the injury makes you wonder whether he is brittle. It would not surprise me if he spends part of the year in Triple-A next year. If he stays healthy, he’ll hit .260-25 with a -1 or -2 arm in 400 at-bats.
Hector Sanchez C SF Bats: S Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2009 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 .091 .182 .167 .348 3.0 .125 vs RH 20 7 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 .350 .400 .409 .809 1.5 .411 Total 31 8 2 0 0 3 0 0 6 0 0 .258 .323 .324 .646 2.0 .320 Grade: P66-CA C-4(+1)
Sanchez put himself on the Giants’ radar after hitting .302 with 11 HR in High-A. With the Buster Posey injury, he was called up and used as the #3 catcher. He was called up in July and optioned to Triple-A five days later. He was called up again in August, this time for six days. He’ll have a great card against right-handers as a pinch hitter. He still has plenty of development to go and with Posey returning he doesn’t have a path to the majors. Still, he is someone to draft and stash.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade Defense ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jesus Montero NYY R R 21 NDFA 2007 B78-DH C-4(+2) Wilin Rosario COL R R 22 NDFA 2007 P77-CA C-3(-1) Salvador Perez KC R R 21 NDFA 2007 P77-CA C-3(-1) Hank Conger LAA S R 22 2006-1(25) P77-CA C-4(+2) Ryan Lavarnway BOS R R 23 2008-6(202) P77-1B C-4(+1) *GOON CARD VS. LH* Devin Mesoraco CIN R R 23 2007-1(15) P67-CA C-3(+1) Tyler Flowers CWS R R 25 2005-33(1007) P66-CA C-4(+1) Jordan Pacheco COL R R 25 2007-9(282) P66-UI CA-4(+2), 1B-3, 2B-4, 3B-5 Michael McKenry PIT R R 26 2006-7(198) P56-CA C-3(+1) Hector Sanchez SF S R 21 NDFA 2009 P66-CA C-4(+1) Tony Cruz STL R R 25 2007-26(802) P55-CA C-4(+1), 2B-4, 3B-4, RF-4(+1) Robinson Chirinos TBY R R 26 NDFA 2000 P44-UI C-4(+2) Jose Lobaton TB S R 27 NDFA 2002 V44-CA C-3(0) Luis Martinez SD R R 26 2007-12(387) V44-CA C-4(+1) Mike Nickeas NYM R R 28 2004-5(141) X11-CA C-3(+1) Kyle Phillips SD L R 27 2002-10(302) X11-CA C-3(+1) Rene Rivera MIN R R 27 2001-2(49) X11-CA C-4(+1) Carlos Corporan HOU S R 26 2003-12(339) X11-CA C-5(+3) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montero’s bat is too good not to make him the #1 catcher, but his lack of defensive development is a concern. Rosario and Perez are much more interesting as they can play the position. Perez is probably a sleeper for most. Conger and Mesoraco would be rated higher by most people, but I look at the glove. Lavarnway is also interesting, because if he can improve defensively, he could be the best overall in the future.
Moving down the list, Flowers could still develop. McKenry is a sleeper, but his manager likes him. Pacheco is a super utility player with a good line drive bat. In many ways, Cruz is similar.
In the third tier, some of these guys could in a good year be a #2, but a #3 is more likely.
The last group isn’t worth your time even if you are drafting twenty rounds. Just cross off their names.
Strat-O-Matic Off-Season Scouting
Well, the regular season has ended and I’ve acquired regular season statistics already, so I’m going to start the process of scouting the new cards for 2012. As usual, I’ll start with catchers, because good catchers are so important in Strat-O-Matic and there are so few of them. I’m going to be doing some new things, like adding players you might find available. If they didn’t get a card in two years or more, I’ll add them to the mix.
It looks like it is going to be an interesting draft this year. There are some great first round cards, that is for sure. I hope to have the first article up later this week.
Tout Wars End of Season Report
It is a joyous time to live in Wisconsin. The Packers remain undefeated. The Badger beat #8 rated Nebraska. The Brewers are 2-0 in the playoffs. Still, that doesn’t make up for a weak ending to my 2011 Tout Wars season. After a strong start, I have a weak September and fall to seventh. That is fantasy baseball for you.
My season started strong. I led for the first month an a half, but my pitching started to fall apart. It was the injury bug again. I spent $37 on a closer core of Neftali Feliz, Johnathon Broxton and Jacob McGee. Feliz was okay, but not nearly as dominating as he was in 2010 and certainly not worth $19. Broxton was hurt and a complete loss. McGee didn’t end up closing.
I lived with just one closer for the first four months, because the cost for a closer as a free-agent or in a trade was too costly. So, I waited. In August I acquired both J.J. Putz and Brian Wilson in trades. Wilson almost immediately went on the DL after I traded for him. Putz was only affordable because I traded for him while he was on the DL. My plan was to acquire reliever help and bring down my ERA and WHIP. Daniel Bard gave me 12 innings of 5.25 ERA ball. Needless to say, nothing work the way I wanted.
When I look at look at my reserved player stats, you can see how much bad luck I had. Juan Nicasio in my roation? 7.313 ERA. On my bench? 0.64. Jonathan Niese? 4.95 ERA in my rotation and a 1.91 ERA ib ny bench. Jason Vargus? 4.57 opposed to 3.20. I dropped Derek Holland for the chance that Jason Motte would close, but then dropped Motte and couldn’t get him back once he did. While Holland wouldn’t help my ERA and WHIP, his 16 wins would help any fantasy team as a #6 starter.
What kills me is that if I could have done better with my pitching, I would have been in the running in the end.
My hitters were solid. When you acquire Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds, you know that I was punting batting average. I ended up 1st in home runs, 2nd in RBI and 3rd in runs. I was ninth in stolen bases, but just two stolen bases from seventh. Although I was dead last in batting average, I was as high as ninth just a couple of week earlier.
Still, I had plenty of bright sides. Although I overpaid for Carlos Santana, he did hit 27 home runs and you’d be lucky to get 27 home runs from your two catcher slots combined. I paid just $1 for Johnathon Lucroy and picked up Alex Avila in the reserve round. I paid a measly $3 for Asdrubl Cabrera. He earned much more than that. Ike Davis was huge until he was hurt. Chipper Jones for a $1 was a deal especially when I picked up Danny Valencia to back him up. You need a solid core, and I did and they performed as expected. I had the fringe players. I just needed the pitching.
As I look through the season, I just simply missed the mark too many times. The Tout Wars winner, Fred Zinkie was extremely aggressive trading and picking up players. He had 60 different hitters on his active roster alone! That is just amazing. How he managed that is a lesson any fantasy player can learn from. Most importantly, he did that without being annoying. Every offer was sound and I had to think about it hard.
All-in-all, I’m proud of this season. I picked a bunch of low cost winners and my core players performed. If I can just make some adjustments selecting pitchers, I’ll get them next year.
An Update
I’ve recently had a job change and what I thought was just a couple of weeks turned into over a month. Like most fantasy sports players, I crave intellectually challenging job and I have one again. But, enough about me. Let’s look where I am in Tout Wars.
So, last I left, I was in eighth place. Where am I today? Eighth place! It kills me. Basically my team hasn’t changed.
Offensively, I’m doing quite well. I am second in runs, just a handful from first. I am solidly in first in both runs and RBI. I have a six home run lead and a four RBI lead. I am fifth in stolen bases. I’m stuck in 12th place in batting average, although some of my opponents looking for power, have sacrificed batting average as well. If I had an average pitching staff, with this offense, I’d be in first place.
I’ve struggled pitchingwise. I’m seventh in wins. Not great, but acceptable. I’m eighth in strikeouts, again not great but acceptable. I’m 11th in saves, 12th in ERA and 12th in WHIP.
Clearly, I’m strong in power, so I have traded some for closers. I traded Tim Hudson for J.J. Putz and Alex Avila for Brian Wilson. My strategy is simple, get my ERA, WHIP and Saves up in the last two months while holding my offensive categories. If I can get those three categories up five points in the standings each while holding everywhere else, I should be in a strong position to win this league. Five points is going to be a tall order, however. I need some real luck here. Every time I make some headway, I have a bad outing and fall back down. It is a bit frustrating. You can dump a category, but you cannot dump three!
Still, I am in a strong position despite 8th place in the standings. I have a path to lead. I am very much in this.
Tout Mixed Week 14 Report
I had an excellent week in Week 14, second overall. I am continuing to catch up in those categories that I dug my self into some deep holes, ERA, WHIP and Batting Average. Today, I’m still sitting in eighth place, but I was sixth yesterday. There is a tight pack between 4th at 92.5 points and me at 86.5 points.
I dropped a spot from third to fourth in runs. I’m eight runs behind third place. I’m still close enough that a good week would push me up as far as second place.
I rebuilt a strong lead in RBI. I lead with 553 and have a very solid 27 RBI buffer from second place. I now have a solid six home run buffer from second place in home runs as well.
I have made great headway in stolen bases. I’m currently tied for sixth and I’m only four way from fifth. There is going to be a rather big bubble to make up for fourth, but I have plenty of time to do it.
After gaining some ground in batting average, I have fallen a bit because of a recent slump. I was as high at .257, but I’m back down to .255. It is in this category that I’m going to have to improve if I want to win.
I have moved up to fifth in Wins and I’m only three wins from third and eight from first. I certainly have the players to do it.
I am currently seventh in strikeouts and move between sixth and eighth depending upon the number of starters I have in a given week. There is room to move up here and I made a move to do it.
I am 13th in ERA, but have cut it down from a 4.20 to 4.02. Breaking through that bubble is a bid deal and I need to continue to build on that. WHIP is the same, I’ve cut it down from a huge deficit into something more manageable even if that means that I haven’t changed much in the standings.
Saves are dangling out there. I’m not willing to pay the FAAB price for saves and I’ll trade some of my RBI and home runs for saves when the time it right. That time is not now. To give you an idea of the price for saves, David Hernandez went for $10 this week just for a handful. It is crazy!
I made two moves this week. I dropped Jamey Carroll for a $2 Justin Turner. Turner has struggled because of a sore thumb, but he’s going to get the All-Star break to rest it. I wanted Mark Ellis for $2, but he went for $4. Basically, I need someone to play that position until Brian Roberts returns, assuming Roberts does return.
I also bid $8 on Juan Nicasio and dropped Derek Holland. I like Nicasio and I’ve seen some good improvement so far this year. Of seven starts, five were quality. I’ll throw out the one bad start against the Yankees. That leaves a poor start against the Indians where he struck out six in 4.2 innings. Nicasio has a low 90′s fastball and a great change, but there has been some improvement in this slider and change. I’ll take a flyer on that because Holland has been mostly off this year. The $8 was too much, though. I could have had him for $4.
I’ve put Danny Valencia in this week over Chipper Jones. Valencia has been slowly heating up and Chipper is hurting. I’m waiting for news on Ike Davis, Brian Roberts and Johnathon Broxton. I’ve had some recent bad news on Broxton and Davis. It looked like Broxton was coming back and would have his old job back, but he had a setback. Davis is not healing and might be done for the season. I paid $6 for him in the auction, and I would get that back, so I’m hoping a decision is made one way or the other soon.
That leaves Roberts. It sounds like the worst is over and he is back doing baseball activities, so maybe I’ll get him back. Having Roberts back would help this team as I need more stolen bases, and that is why I got him in the first place. I have my fingers crossed.
So, I’m in the mix. I have some things to trade with the time is right. I have found some quality players to help me in the meantime. Although I’m in the middle of the pack, I have the players to win this year.
Mixed Tout Week 12
Not a whole lot to talk about this week. Although I was ninth overall for the week, I was strong in the categories I need to be strong, so I continue to dig myself out of the hole I made for myself earlier in the year.
My hitting dominated and my pitching was weak, but ended on a strong note. I put some separation between myself and fourth place in runs and now I am just ten runs from second place. I have moved to second in home runs and I am only one home run from first place. I was watching my opponents catch up to me in RBI, but I pulled ahead and now have a 14 RBI lead for first place. I continue to do well in stolen bases. I am eighth overall, but I made great headway on catching up to seventh place. I didn’t change positions in batting average, but I’m slowly catching up to ninth place. There was a .05 difference a couple of weeks ago, but I’ve raised mine to just under .02. Another couple of weeks and that huge hole will be filled in.
Pitching continues to be a struggle. I’m fifth in wins and just one win from fourth. I continue to fall in saves as I have only one closer. I am ninth in strikeouts but I’m catching up. That leaves ERA and WHIP. I had some great outing and some weak outings. From a foundation standpoint, this team is strong. All I need to do is continue to improve in batting average, stolen bases, ERA and WHIP and I can win. I have plenty of time to do it.
With no needs I didn’t make any FAAB moves. There wasn’t much out there. We’re slowly getting healthy and should be a full strength by the All Star Break. I wasn’t happy about setbacks from Brian Roberts and Ike Davis, but I’m hopeful that they will be back soon.
Like I said, not much to report other than I’m gaining in the categories I need to gain in that that is the path to the top.
