Future Cards of 2011 > Catchers
Okay, here we go. The first set of prospects and as I always do it is the catchers. A good catcher is critical to Strat-O-Matic. Let me say it, a good catcher is more important than a good shortstop. In my analysis of the defensive charts, when you combine the arm and range of a catcher, that player is more important than a shortstop. The difference between a C-2 and C-4 is huge because of all the passed balls and wild pitches that player gives up. The difference between a -2 and +2 is something I shouldn’t have to explain. Therefore, I always start with the catchers.
Right away it was obvious that the rookie crop was not going to be as good as last year. Last year was huge for catchers. I didn’t expect to find much here because there were no catchers with 300 or more at-bats. Still, there are some interesting prospects for the later rounds, if you are willing to wait a couple of years.
Let’s begin…
Robinson Chirinos C TBY Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: NDFA 2000 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .500 .833 0.0 .500 vs RH 52 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 12 0 0 .212 .308 .268 .576 3.4 .256 Total 55 12 2 0 1 5 0 0 13 0 0 .218 .309 .283 .592 1.3 .268 Grade: P44-UI C-4(+2)
Chirinos put himself on the radar with a strong spring performance and almost made the roster for Opening Day. A former infielder, Chirinos converted to catcher in 2008, so he is an interesting backup catcher who can also play other infield positions. It also means that he is not terribly slow for a catcher, but not a threat to steal. Defensively, base runners pretty much ran at will against him. He was only able to throw out two runners in 23 attempts. Because of that inability to control the running game, he was sent down when John Jaso returned from the DL. If he can improve behind the plate, he can hit a little bit and is versatile enough to warrant a second chance as a backup catcher.
Hank Conger C LAA Bats: S Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2006-1(25) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 .182 .182 .357 .539 1.0 .250 vs RH 166 35 8 0 6 14 1 1 34 2 0 .211 .367 .276 .644 1.4 .230 Total 177 37 8 0 6 17 1 2 37 2 0 .209 .356 .282 .638 0.9 .231 Grade: P77-CA C-4(+2)
The fantasy world was all over Hank Conger when he was called up. He hit with authority and looked like a stud fantasy catcher. The slump started in June and by mid-July he was back in Triple-A. He was only successful throwing out 12 runners in 65 attempts, so you are looking at a +2 or +3 arm. Conger can flat out hit and it is his bat that will get him playing time. The catcher situation with the Angels is bad enough that if Conger can just improve slightly, he’ll be a regular. I expect him to do so.
Carlos Corporan C HOU Bats: S Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: Draft 2003-12(339) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 9 3 0 0 5 1 1 14 2 0 .243 .324 .349 .673 7.5 .391 vs RH 117 20 5 1 0 5 3 3 35 1 2 .171 .231 .220 .451 1.0 .238 Total 154 29 8 1 0 10 4 4 49 3 2 .188 .253 .253 .506 1.1 .271 Grade: X11-CA C-5(+3)
The Astros are the classic example of what happens to a Strat-O-Matic team without a good catcher. The injury to Jason Castro and the developmental failure of J.R. Towles meant that Corporan, an organizational player, was given 154 Mendoza Line at-bats. Corporan gave up 43 stolen bases in only 50 games! He’ll be at least a C-4(+3) if not a C-5(+5). You are better off playing your DH out of position than putting Corporan behind the dish. The only good thing about him is his ability to get in the way of the ball. No, I don’t mean blocking wild pitches, I mean hit by pitches when he is at the plate.
Tony Cruz C STL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2007-26(802) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 7 2 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 .269 .346 .321 .668 0.8 .280 vs RH 39 10 3 0 0 4 1 0 12 0 0 .256 .333 .341 .674 0.8 .370 Total 65 17 5 0 0 6 1 1 13 0 0 .262 .338 .333 .672 0.6 .326 Grade: P55-CA C-4(+1), 2B-4, 3B-4, RF-4(+1)
Tony Cruz is an interesting story. Any player drafted as late as the 26th round and makes the Majors is a good story. Not a good prospect, he played well enough that he passed Bryan Anderson on the prospect chart. Playing behind Yadier Molina means that he won’t get much playing time. Fortunately, Cruz is a former third baseman, so he saw time at first, second, third and right-field. He has a strong arm and is capable of hitting .250 with a handful of home runs.
Tyler Flowers C CWS Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2005-33(1007) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 5 0 0 1 3 1 0 14 0 1 .135 .216 .214 .431 0.6 .173 vs RH 73 18 5 1 4 11 2 0 24 0 1 .247 .507 .356 .863 1.0 .304 Total 110 23 5 1 5 14 3 0 38 0 2 .209 .409 .310 .719 0.7 .260 Grade: P66-CA C-4(+1)
The White Sox were hoping that Tyler Flowers would take over a majority of the playing time behind the plate by now, but it hasn’t worked out as expected. Flowers has above average power and isn’t afraid to take a walk, but he is slow. Very slow. 1-8 or 1-9 slow. He does have a strong arm behind the plate, although his performance wasn’t great. Basically, he is similar to J.P. Arencibia. He’ll hit about .240 with up to 20 home runs.
Ryan Lavarnway C BOS Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2008-6(2002) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 17 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 .294 .647 .333 .980 0.5 .230 vs RH 22 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 8 0 0 .182 .273 .280 .553 0.8 .285 Total 39 9 2 0 2 4 0 0 10 0 0 .231 .436 .302 .738 0.6 .259 Grade: P77-1B C-4(+1) *GOON CARD VS. LH*
Players like Lavarnway are hard to evaluate. He is seen as one of the Red Sox’s best hitters in the minors, but he has never been a starting catcher up to this point. When he was drafted, it was assumed that he wouldn’t make behind the plate, but with hard work, he has hung on. That doesn’t mean that he is a great catcher. The kid can flat out hit. He hit 32 home runs combined between Double and Triple-A. He is the best hitting backup in all of baseball. He is brutally slow. He’s worth an earlier round pick based upon his bat, but I don’t think he’ll remain a catcher and he doesn’t have earlier round value unless he’s behind the plate.
Jose Lobaton C TB C BOS Bats: S Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: NDFA 2002 SDP Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 20 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 .150 .200 .190 .390 4.3 .166 vs RH 14 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 6 0 0 .071 .071 .278 .349 0.4 .125 Total 34 4 1 0 0 4 1 0 8 0 0 .118 .147 .231 .378 1.7 .153 Grade: V44-CA C-3(0)
Lobaton is a decent defensive catcher who has been known to have good patience with the bat and will hit the occasional home run. He doesn’t have the skills for an everyday job, so he’ll hang around in Triple-A as an organization’s #3 or #4 catcher on the roster.
Luis Martinez C SD Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2007-12(387) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 3 1 1 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 .214 .429 .313 .741 0.0 .333 vs RH 45 9 0 0 1 7 0 2 9 0 0 .200 .267 .308 .574 2.9 .228 Total 59 12 1 1 1 8 1 2 14 0 0 .203 .305 .309 .614 1.5 .250 Grade: V55-CA C-4(+1)
Martinez served as the Padres’ #3 catcher and saw extended time on the Major League roster due to injuries. He did hit .323 in limited at-bats in Triple-A. His card against left-handers is almost goon like with a double and triple in just 14 at-bats. As best, he develops into a #2 catcher, but #3 is probably his role.
Michael McKenry C PIT Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2006-7(198) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 42 7 3 0 0 6 0 1 15 2 2 .167 .238 .260 .498 2.3 .241 vs RH 138 33 9 0 2 8 0 1 34 3 0 .239 .348 .281 .629 0.8 .303 Total 180 40 12 0 2 14 0 2 49 5 2 .222 .322 .276 .598 0.8 .290 Grade: P56-CA C-3(+1)
McKenry had a decent year and has a good chance of being the #2 catcher for the Pirates next year. He has a strong arm and some pop. He is going to meet with manager in the off-season to work on his hitting. So when your manager has his eye on you, that is a good sign. Both Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit will be free agents, so there is some remote chance that McKenry could end up the #1 if the team can’t sign a #1.
Devin Mesoraco C CIN Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2007-1(15) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .250 .375 .250 .625 0.7 .285 vs RH 42 7 2 0 2 3 0 1 9 0 0 .167 .357 .222 .579 1.9 .161 Total 50 9 3 0 2 3 0 1 10 0 0 .180 .360 .226 .586 0.9 .184 Grade: P67-CA C-3(+1)
If you take two players with identical tools and make one a catcher, it is going to take longer for the catcher to reach his potential. The position is much harder to master. Mesoraco was drafted 15th overall in 2007 and only just started to show some potential. To give you an idea of how things have gone for him, Mesoraco was the Reds 30th prospect according to Baseball America in 2010 and jumped to #3 in to2011. The Reds like him more than the scouts. He has power and a strong arm, but still needs work refining his game behind the plate.
Jesus Montero C NYY Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 24 12 3 0 0 3 0 1 6 0 0 .500 .625 .556 1.181 1.0 .666 vs RH 37 8 1 0 4 4 1 1 11 0 0 .216 .568 .310 .877 2.4 .181 Total 61 20 4 0 4 7 1 2 17 0 0 .328 .590 .406 .996 1.4 .400 Grade: B78-CA/DH C-4(+2)
Montero is a name you should know. The top Yankee prospect, he can hit with authority. If all we cared about was his bat, he’d be the #1 prospect easily, but this is Strat-O-Matic and defense counts. Unfortunately, Montero’s glove has lagged far behind his bat. That is why the Yankee signed Russ Martin. That is why the Yankees were willing to trade him in the right deal. The good news is that the Yankees are looking at him as their full-time DH next year. He should get some quality at-bats and still count as a #2 catcher.
Mike Nickeas C NYM Bats: R Throws: R Age: 28 Draft: 2004-5(141) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 3 1 0 .115 .269 .207 .476 0.5 .090 vs RH 27 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 1 0 .259 .259 .286 .545 3.7 .368 Total 53 10 1 0 1 4 0 0 11 2 0 .189 .264 .246 .510 0.8 .219 Grade: X11-CA C-3(+1)
Nickeas was the Mets’ fourth string catcher and found himself on the Major League roster due to some injuries. He’s not likely to get more than a handful of at-bats next year.
Jordan Pacheco C COL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2007-9(282) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 26 10 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 .385 .538 .407 .946 1.0 .409 vs RH 58 14 0 0 1 2 1 0 6 0 0 .241 .293 .279 .572 3.6 .254 Total 84 24 1 0 2 3 1 0 9 0 0 .286 .369 .318 .687 1.8 .301 Grade: P66-UI CA-4(+2), 1B-3, 2B-4, 3B-5.
A pleasant surprise, Jordan Pacheco hit well enough and has enough flexibility that his role on the team next year is pretty much assured. A former infielder, Pacheco converted to catching in 2008. He has made great strides there, but he doesn’t have the skills of a full-timer. His solid line-drive bat and position flexibility make him interesting. NL teams need player like Pacheco who can pinch-hit and play multiple positions. He could be a solid hitting bench card and cover a number of spots at a backup.
Salvador Perez C KC Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 31 15 3 1 1 4 0 0 1 0 0 .484 .742 .543 1.285 1.3 .482 vs RH 117 34 5 1 2 3 1 0 19 0 2 .291 .402 .309 .711 1.3 .326 Total 148 49 8 2 3 7 1 0 20 0 2 .331 .473 .361 .834 1.1 .362 Grade: P77-CA C-3(-1)
The Royals have been patiently waiting for Perez to develop and it looks like it has finally happened. Perez was the top catcher prospect in the system until the Royals drafted Wil Myers. A little competition seems to be what Perez needed and he has developed nicely. Now Myers has been moved to the outfield. Perez has an above-average arm but a very quick release giving him a -1 to -2 arm rating behind the plate. Hitting wise, he takes advantage of the whole field and he has some developing power. He is very slow, however. If he continues to develop and doesn’t put on weight, Perez looks like a solid everyday catcher.
Kyle Phillips C SD Bats: L Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: 2002-10(302) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 5 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 .200 .800 .333 1.133 2.0 .000 vs RH 71 12 3 0 1 7 1 1 17 0 0 .169 .254 .253 .507 0.5 .207 Total 76 13 3 0 2 8 1 1 19 0 0 .171 .289 .259 .548 0.5 .200 Grade: X11-CA C-3(+1)
Phillips is a journeyman catcher in the San Diego system who will only get promoted if a veteran goes down.
Rene Rivera C MIN Bats: R Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: 2001-2(49) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 28 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 5 0 0 .179 .321 .233 .555 1.5 .181 vs RH 76 10 2 0 0 6 1 0 27 0 1 .132 .158 .202 .360 1.1 .200 Total 104 15 3 0 1 8 1 0 32 0 1 .144 .202 .211 .412 1.0 .194 Grade: X11-CA C-4(+1)
Rivera was last carded in 2006, but he only hit .152 so it is unlikely anyone still has him on their roster. Rivera only hit .144 the second time, so he is due for his next card in 2016. He’ll be 32 then, but as a veteran organizational catcher, he might still be plugging away in the minors.
Wilin Rosario C COL Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: NDFA 2007 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 4 1 1 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 .286 .714 .375 1.089 0.7 .333 vs RH 40 7 2 0 2 0 0 0 16 0 1 .175 .375 .171 .546 1.6 .217 Total 54 11 3 1 3 2 0 0 20 0 1 .204 .463 .228 .691 1.1 .250 Grade: P77-CA C-3(-1)
Rosario would have been on the Major League roster this year if he didn’t tear his ACL in 2010. He has an excellent package of skills. He has an above average arm. He threw out 5-of-7 after his September call-up. He has solid power, hitting 21 home runs and should hit for good average. He has the standard negatives you find in most catchers. He is slow and the injury makes you wonder whether he is brittle. It would not surprise me if he spends part of the year in Triple-A next year. If he stays healthy, he’ll hit .260-25 with a -1 or -2 arm in 400 at-bats.
Hector Sanchez C SF Bats: S Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: NDFA 2009 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 .091 .182 .167 .348 3.0 .125 vs RH 20 7 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 .350 .400 .409 .809 1.5 .411 Total 31 8 2 0 0 3 0 0 6 0 0 .258 .323 .324 .646 2.0 .320 Grade: P66-CA C-4(+1)
Sanchez put himself on the Giants’ radar after hitting .302 with 11 HR in High-A. With the Buster Posey injury, he was called up and used as the #3 catcher. He was called up in July and optioned to Triple-A five days later. He was called up again in August, this time for six days. He’ll have a great card against right-handers as a pinch hitter. He still has plenty of development to go and with Posey returning he doesn’t have a path to the majors. Still, he is someone to draft and stash.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade Defense ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jesus Montero NYY R R 21 NDFA 2007 B78-DH C-4(+2) Wilin Rosario COL R R 22 NDFA 2007 P77-CA C-3(-1) Salvador Perez KC R R 21 NDFA 2007 P77-CA C-3(-1) Hank Conger LAA S R 22 2006-1(25) P77-CA C-4(+2) Ryan Lavarnway BOS R R 23 2008-6(202) P77-1B C-4(+1) *GOON CARD VS. LH* Devin Mesoraco CIN R R 23 2007-1(15) P67-CA C-3(+1) Tyler Flowers CWS R R 25 2005-33(1007) P66-CA C-4(+1) Jordan Pacheco COL R R 25 2007-9(282) P66-UI CA-4(+2), 1B-3, 2B-4, 3B-5 Michael McKenry PIT R R 26 2006-7(198) P56-CA C-3(+1) Hector Sanchez SF S R 21 NDFA 2009 P66-CA C-4(+1) Tony Cruz STL R R 25 2007-26(802) P55-CA C-4(+1), 2B-4, 3B-4, RF-4(+1) Robinson Chirinos TBY R R 26 NDFA 2000 P44-UI C-4(+2) Jose Lobaton TB S R 27 NDFA 2002 V44-CA C-3(0) Luis Martinez SD R R 26 2007-12(387) V44-CA C-4(+1) Mike Nickeas NYM R R 28 2004-5(141) X11-CA C-3(+1) Kyle Phillips SD L R 27 2002-10(302) X11-CA C-3(+1) Rene Rivera MIN R R 27 2001-2(49) X11-CA C-4(+1) Carlos Corporan HOU S R 26 2003-12(339) X11-CA C-5(+3) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montero’s bat is too good not to make him the #1 catcher, but his lack of defensive development is a concern. Rosario and Perez are much more interesting as they can play the position. Perez is probably a sleeper for most. Conger and Mesoraco would be rated higher by most people, but I look at the glove. Lavarnway is also interesting, because if he can improve defensively, he could be the best overall in the future.
Moving down the list, Flowers could still develop. McKenry is a sleeper, but his manager likes him. Pacheco is a super utility player with a good line drive bat. In many ways, Cruz is similar.
In the third tier, some of these guys could in a good year be a #2, but a #3 is more likely.
The last group isn’t worth your time even if you are drafting twenty rounds. Just cross off their names.
Thanks for your great analysis and your amazing cheatsheets. With your help, I was able to win my Stratomatic league for the first time. People thought I was crazy for benching Kershaw in one round, but I went with your cheatsheet numbers. Keep up the amazing work.