Future Prospect of 2011 > First Base
After a number of quiet years, first base is a strong position for the 2011 set with a number of players who will have an immediate impact on a Strat-O-Matic team. Let’s get right down to business.
Brandon Belt 1B SFG Bats: L Throws: L Age: 23 Draft: 2009-5(147) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 46 16 2 0 2 4 1 0 15 0 0 .348 .522 .412 .934 0.9 .482 vs RH 141 26 4 1 7 16 1 1 42 0 0 .184 .376 .272 .648 1.4 .206 Total 187 42 6 1 9 20 2 1 57 0 0 .225 .412 .306 .718 1.0 .272 Grade: P77-1B/OF 1B-2 LF/RF-3(-1)
I saw Belt last year in the Arizona Fall League. Many of my colleagues were hemming and hawing about him, but I wasn’t nearly as impressed. He doesn’t have the power that you are looking for as a first baseman. He was a high-school pitcher with a high-80’s fastball, so he has the arm strength to play outfield. Belt is the fastest first baseman I’m writing about today. When it comes down to it, I’m not sure why he isn’t an outfielder. He has the speed and arm for the job. If he stays at first, he has a chance to win a Gold Glove, so I’m going to give him a 1B-2. He traditionally has not had a platoon split, so you don’t have to worry about carrying a spare right-handed hitting first baseman. If the Giants announce that he’s going to stay in the outfield, he’ll move up this list.
Eric Hosmer 1B KCR Bats: L Throws: L Age: 21 Draft: 2008-1(3) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 152 36 5 1 1 10 0 0 27 0 1 .237 .303 .282 .585 2.4 .280 vs RH 371 117 22 2 18 24 1 7 55 0 4 .315 .531 .355 .886 1.7 .327 Total 523 153 27 3 19 34 1 7 82 0 5 .293 .465 .334 .799 1.4 .313 Grade: B88-1B 1B-4
Hosmer is the complete package. He has both the ability to hit for power and for average with a sweet swing. Pitch it inside and he’ll go the other way. Although he stole 11 bases, he has below average speed. He is just a smart base runner. Defensively, he’ll grow into the position. He did boot eight balls, but he looks to have good range. The Royals forced him to cover the line more, so he has a weak plus/minus. The only knock on him is a poor platoon split, but that shouldn’t be an issue in the future. He is a sure top-five pick.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARZ Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23 Draft: 2009-8(246) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 37 6 2 0 2 6 0 0 13 0 0 .162 .378 .279 .657 2.0 .181 vs RH 119 33 7 1 6 14 0 0 40 0 1 .277 .504 .351 .855 1.2 .364 Total 156 39 9 1 8 20 0 0 53 0 1 .250 .474 .333 .808 1.2 .322 Grade: P77-1B 1B-4
Goldschmidt has serious power and had a great two months for the Diamondbacks. There are some concerns with him, however. He has always struggled with the strikeouts. He did make great improvements in Double-A, but still struck out 145 times in 522 at-bats combined between the Majors and Double-A. Defensively, he is below average. He is also a bit older than his competition. While he promises solid power, he does have some holes in his game.
Jesus Guzman 1B SDP Bats: S Throws: R Age: 27 Draft: NDFA 2000 Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 93 31 8 1 2 8 0 2 16 0 0 .333 .505 .386 .892 1.3 .386 vs RH 154 46 14 1 3 14 1 0 27 0 1 .299 .461 .359 .820 1.6 .344 Total 247 77 22 2 5 22 1 2 43 0 1 .312 .478 .369 .847 1.1 .360 Grade: V66-1B 1B-3 LF/RF-4(+1)
Guzman will have a pretty nice card, but he is 27. He always could hit like this but was never given the chance. Draft him for his card, but don’t expect 200+ at-bats next year.
David Cooper 1B TOR Bats: L Throws: L Age: 24 Draft: 2008-1(17) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 14 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .286 .429 .286 .714 1.0 .333 vs RH 57 11 5 0 2 7 1 0 12 0 2 .193 .386 .284 .670 1.1 .200 Total 71 15 7 0 2 7 1 0 14 0 2 .211 .394 .284 .678 1.0 .228 Grade: P67-1B 1B-4
A first-round pick in 2008, Cooper was expected to be an impact bat by now. He struggled in Double-A in 2009 and repeated the level. In 2010, the power improved, but he still hit .257. He played in Triple-A last year and the power was missing, but he hit .364 and walked more than he struck out. Defensive skills and speed are below average, so he needs to crank to make it. He did crush a 98 MPH fastball during his September cup of coffee, so he has the goods. He just needs to put things together. Because there are other more exciting options, he’ll slip to the middle the draft, but he could be a solid Major League 1B/DH once he figures it out.
Freddie Freeman 1B ATL Bats: L Throws: R Age: 21 Draft: 2007-2(78) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 186 46 8 0 7 13 3 0 55 0 2 .247 .403 .304 .707 1.6 .309 vs RH 385 115 24 0 14 40 3 3 87 0 3 .299 .470 .367 .837 1.4 .351 Total 571 161 32 0 21 53 6 3 142 0 5 .282 .448 .346 .795 1.2 .338 Grade: B88-1B 1B-3
A 21-year-old hit .282 with 21 homeruns his rookie season and isn’t the first overall pick? Nope. He didn’t win the NL ROY? Nope. Still, there is much to like in Freddie Freeman. He is a solid defensive first-baseman who spreads the ball around and should hit for good average. He has 20 HR power, but his body type isn’t once that indicates that he’ll be a real masher. You’re looking at .300/25 and a solid 1B-1/2. His card is probably one that will require a solid right-handed bat off the bench to platoon with him. Against right-handers, he is a good #6 hitter.
Anthony Rizzo 1B SDP Bats: L Throws: L Age: 21 Draft: 2007-6(204) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 29 5 2 0 1 3 1 0 9 0 0 .172 .345 .273 .618 3.7 .210 vs RH 99 13 6 1 0 18 3 1 37 0 0 .131 .212 .283 .495 1.0 .209 Total 128 18 8 1 1 21 4 1 46 0 0 .141 .242 .281 .523 1.1 .209 Grade: P78-1B 1B-4
Rizzo is a top power prospect who hit .331 with 26 HR in 356 Triple-A at-bats as a 21-year-old. He then hit just .141 with a single home run. He did walk 21 times in 128 at-bats, which is a good sign. Rizzo had a history in the minors of struggling against left-handers, but he hit better in his short Major League experience. That is if you consider .172 better. Defensively, he is a average first baseman, but prone to the occasional mental error. It is hard to tell why he fared so poorly. He certainly has the tools to be a solid power hitting first baseman.
Chris Parmelee 1B MIN Bats: L Throws: L Age: 23 Draft: 2006-1(20) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 19 6 4 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 .316 .526 .409 .935 2.3 .400 vs RH 57 21 2 0 4 9 0 0 9 0 0 .368 .614 .455 1.069 0.8 .386 Total 76 27 6 0 4 12 0 0 13 0 0 .355 .592 .443 1.035 1.0 .389 Grade: P77-1B 1B-4
Although he is only 23, Chris Parmelee was a first-round pick in 2006 and hadn’t made it past Double-A yet. He had a lack luster Double-A campaign in 2010 and repeated the level in 2011. There was some improvement, but 13 home runs in 530 at-bats is not the performance you are looking for from a first baseman. Then, he gets called up and hits like crazy. He ended the season hitting .355 with 4 home runs giving him a wonderful pinch-hitting goon card. More importantly, that performance gives him a real opportunity this spring. On the one hand, he was a first-round pick and has a sweet swing. On the other, he has never done this before. Is he a late bloomer that just needed to be motivated? Pick him in the fifth round and see what he does. The .390 BABIP leans toward fluke.
Brett Pill 1B SFG Bats: R Throws: R Age: 26 Draft: 2006-7(206) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 28 7 3 0 1 1 0 0 7 0 0 .250 .464 .276 .740 4.0 .300 vs RH 22 8 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .364 .682 .375 1.057 0.8 .333 Total 50 15 3 2 2 2 0 0 8 0 1 .300 .560 .321 .881 1.3 .317 Grade: V55-1B 1B-4
Pill was called up for a September callup and hit well, including a home run in his very first at-bat. He is old and doesn’t have the power you want from first base. At best he’ll earn a bench job as a pinch hitter. He’ll have a nice pinch hitting card.
Mark Hamilton 1B STL Bats: L Throws: L Age: 26 Draft: 2006-2(76) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .182 .182 .182 .364 6.0 .250 vs RH 36 8 3 0 0 4 0 0 13 0 0 .222 .306 .300 .606 0.7 .347 Total 47 10 3 0 0 4 0 0 16 0 0 .213 .277 .275 .551 1.2 .322 Grade: X44-1B 1B-4
Hamilton received a couple of unexpected call-ups due to Albert Pujols’ injury. At 26, the Cardinals are not looking to him at this point to replace Pujols if Pujols doesn’t re-sign. He did hit for high average, but the power disappeared in Triple-A. Keep an eye on him if his status changes, but I expect the Cardinals to sign a free agent instead of looking to Hamilton.
Chris Marrero 1B WSH Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22 Draft: 2006-1(15) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 16 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 .313 .438 .294 .732 1.0 .384 vs RH 93 22 3 0 0 4 1 0 23 0 2 .237 .269 .270 .539 1.0 .305 Total 109 27 5 0 0 4 1 0 27 0 3 .248 .294 .274 .567 1.0 .317 Grade: P67-1B 1B-4
A first-round pick in 2006, Marrero was supposed to develop into a power hitter, but his swing is long. Defensively, he is below average. Although he has been in the minors a long time, he is still only 23 years old and still has some time to develop. The question is whether the Nationals will wait or if they will sign someone now.
Mark Trumbo 1B LAA Bats: R Throws: R Age: 25 Draft: 2004-18(533) Stats AB H 2B 3B HR BB HB IB SO SH SF AVE SLG OBP OPS G:F BABIP vs LH 178 47 10 0 8 8 0 3 46 0 2 .264 .455 .293 .748 1.6 .309 vs RH 361 90 21 1 21 17 5 3 74 0 2 .249 .488 .291 .778 2.0 .257 Total 539 137 31 1 29 25 5 6 120 0 4 .254 .477 .291 .768 1.8 .274 Grade: P77-1B/3B 1B-4 LF/RF-4(0)
I didn’t expect Mark Trumbo to hit like he did. He does have good power, but he strikes out too much and I didn’t expect him to hit for average. .254 isn’t bad for a rookie and the 29 home runs are nice. A former pitcher, he has a strong arm, so the Angels are going to try move him to third base as least some of the time. He has the arm, but I question his range. He doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for average, but he’ll hit a mistake a mile. I think what you see is what you get.
Name Tm B T AG Draft Grade Def ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Hosmer KCR L L 21 2008-1(3) B88-1B 1B-4 Freddie Freeman ATL L R 21 2007-2(78) B88-1B 1B-3 Brandon Belt SFG L L 23 2009-5(147) P77-1B/OF 1B-2 LF/RF-3(-1) Paul Goldschmidt ARZ R R 23 2009-8(246) P77-1B 1B-4 Anthony Rizzo SDP L L 21 2007-6(204) P77-1B 1B-4 Mark Trumbo LAA R R 25 2004-18(533) P77-1B/3B 1B-4 LF/RF-4(0) David Cooper TOR L L 24 2008-1(17) P67-1B 1B-4 Chris Marrero WSH R R 22 2006-1(15) P67-1B 1B-4 Chris Parmelee MIN L L 23 2006-1(20) P77-1B 1B-4 Brett Pill SFG R R 26 2006-7(206) V55-1B 1B-4 Jesus Guzman SDP S R 27 NDFA 2000 V66-1B 1B-3 LF/RF-4(+1) Mark Hamilton STL L L 26 2006-2(76) X44-1B 1B-4 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
