Tout Wars End of Season Report
It is a joyous time to live in Wisconsin. The Packers remain undefeated. The Badger beat #8 rated Nebraska. The Brewers are 2-0 in the playoffs. Still, that doesn’t make up for a weak ending to my 2011 Tout Wars season. After a strong start, I have a weak September and fall to seventh. That is fantasy baseball for you.
My season started strong. I led for the first month an a half, but my pitching started to fall apart. It was the injury bug again. I spent $37 on a closer core of Neftali Feliz, Johnathon Broxton and Jacob McGee. Feliz was okay, but not nearly as dominating as he was in 2010 and certainly not worth $19. Broxton was hurt and a complete loss. McGee didn’t end up closing.
I lived with just one closer for the first four months, because the cost for a closer as a free-agent or in a trade was too costly. So, I waited. In August I acquired both J.J. Putz and Brian Wilson in trades. Wilson almost immediately went on the DL after I traded for him. Putz was only affordable because I traded for him while he was on the DL. My plan was to acquire reliever help and bring down my ERA and WHIP. Daniel Bard gave me 12 innings of 5.25 ERA ball. Needless to say, nothing work the way I wanted.
When I look at look at my reserved player stats, you can see how much bad luck I had. Juan Nicasio in my roation? 7.313 ERA. On my bench? 0.64. Jonathan Niese? 4.95 ERA in my rotation and a 1.91 ERA ib ny bench. Jason Vargus? 4.57 opposed to 3.20. I dropped Derek Holland for the chance that Jason Motte would close, but then dropped Motte and couldn’t get him back once he did. While Holland wouldn’t help my ERA and WHIP, his 16 wins would help any fantasy team as a #6 starter.
What kills me is that if I could have done better with my pitching, I would have been in the running in the end.
My hitters were solid. When you acquire Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds, you know that I was punting batting average. I ended up 1st in home runs, 2nd in RBI and 3rd in runs. I was ninth in stolen bases, but just two stolen bases from seventh. Although I was dead last in batting average, I was as high as ninth just a couple of week earlier.
Still, I had plenty of bright sides. Although I overpaid for Carlos Santana, he did hit 27 home runs and you’d be lucky to get 27 home runs from your two catcher slots combined. I paid just $1 for Johnathon Lucroy and picked up Alex Avila in the reserve round. I paid a measly $3 for Asdrubl Cabrera. He earned much more than that. Ike Davis was huge until he was hurt. Chipper Jones for a $1 was a deal especially when I picked up Danny Valencia to back him up. You need a solid core, and I did and they performed as expected. I had the fringe players. I just needed the pitching.
As I look through the season, I just simply missed the mark too many times. The Tout Wars winner, Fred Zinkie was extremely aggressive trading and picking up players. He had 60 different hitters on his active roster alone! That is just amazing. How he managed that is a lesson any fantasy player can learn from. Most importantly, he did that without being annoying. Every offer was sound and I had to think about it hard.
All-in-all, I’m proud of this season. I picked a bunch of low cost winners and my core players performed. If I can just make some adjustments selecting pitchers, I’ll get them next year.
An Update
I’ve recently had a job change and what I thought was just a couple of weeks turned into over a month. Like most fantasy sports players, I crave intellectually challenging job and I have one again. But, enough about me. Let’s look where I am in Tout Wars.
So, last I left, I was in eighth place. Where am I today? Eighth place! It kills me. Basically my team hasn’t changed.
Offensively, I’m doing quite well. I am second in runs, just a handful from first. I am solidly in first in both runs and RBI. I have a six home run lead and a four RBI lead. I am fifth in stolen bases. I’m stuck in 12th place in batting average, although some of my opponents looking for power, have sacrificed batting average as well. If I had an average pitching staff, with this offense, I’d be in first place.
I’ve struggled pitchingwise. I’m seventh in wins. Not great, but acceptable. I’m eighth in strikeouts, again not great but acceptable. I’m 11th in saves, 12th in ERA and 12th in WHIP.
Clearly, I’m strong in power, so I have traded some for closers. I traded Tim Hudson for J.J. Putz and Alex Avila for Brian Wilson. My strategy is simple, get my ERA, WHIP and Saves up in the last two months while holding my offensive categories. If I can get those three categories up five points in the standings each while holding everywhere else, I should be in a strong position to win this league. Five points is going to be a tall order, however. I need some real luck here. Every time I make some headway, I have a bad outing and fall back down. It is a bit frustrating. You can dump a category, but you cannot dump three!
Still, I am in a strong position despite 8th place in the standings. I have a path to lead. I am very much in this.
Tout Mixed Week 14 Report
I had an excellent week in Week 14, second overall. I am continuing to catch up in those categories that I dug my self into some deep holes, ERA, WHIP and Batting Average. Today, I’m still sitting in eighth place, but I was sixth yesterday. There is a tight pack between 4th at 92.5 points and me at 86.5 points.
I dropped a spot from third to fourth in runs. I’m eight runs behind third place. I’m still close enough that a good week would push me up as far as second place.
I rebuilt a strong lead in RBI. I lead with 553 and have a very solid 27 RBI buffer from second place. I now have a solid six home run buffer from second place in home runs as well.
I have made great headway in stolen bases. I’m currently tied for sixth and I’m only four way from fifth. There is going to be a rather big bubble to make up for fourth, but I have plenty of time to do it.
After gaining some ground in batting average, I have fallen a bit because of a recent slump. I was as high at .257, but I’m back down to .255. It is in this category that I’m going to have to improve if I want to win.
I have moved up to fifth in Wins and I’m only three wins from third and eight from first. I certainly have the players to do it.
I am currently seventh in strikeouts and move between sixth and eighth depending upon the number of starters I have in a given week. There is room to move up here and I made a move to do it.
I am 13th in ERA, but have cut it down from a 4.20 to 4.02. Breaking through that bubble is a bid deal and I need to continue to build on that. WHIP is the same, I’ve cut it down from a huge deficit into something more manageable even if that means that I haven’t changed much in the standings.
Saves are dangling out there. I’m not willing to pay the FAAB price for saves and I’ll trade some of my RBI and home runs for saves when the time it right. That time is not now. To give you an idea of the price for saves, David Hernandez went for $10 this week just for a handful. It is crazy!
I made two moves this week. I dropped Jamey Carroll for a $2 Justin Turner. Turner has struggled because of a sore thumb, but he’s going to get the All-Star break to rest it. I wanted Mark Ellis for $2, but he went for $4. Basically, I need someone to play that position until Brian Roberts returns, assuming Roberts does return.
I also bid $8 on Juan Nicasio and dropped Derek Holland. I like Nicasio and I’ve seen some good improvement so far this year. Of seven starts, five were quality. I’ll throw out the one bad start against the Yankees. That leaves a poor start against the Indians where he struck out six in 4.2 innings. Nicasio has a low 90′s fastball and a great change, but there has been some improvement in this slider and change. I’ll take a flyer on that because Holland has been mostly off this year. The $8 was too much, though. I could have had him for $4.
I’ve put Danny Valencia in this week over Chipper Jones. Valencia has been slowly heating up and Chipper is hurting. I’m waiting for news on Ike Davis, Brian Roberts and Johnathon Broxton. I’ve had some recent bad news on Broxton and Davis. It looked like Broxton was coming back and would have his old job back, but he had a setback. Davis is not healing and might be done for the season. I paid $6 for him in the auction, and I would get that back, so I’m hoping a decision is made one way or the other soon.
That leaves Roberts. It sounds like the worst is over and he is back doing baseball activities, so maybe I’ll get him back. Having Roberts back would help this team as I need more stolen bases, and that is why I got him in the first place. I have my fingers crossed.
So, I’m in the mix. I have some things to trade with the time is right. I have found some quality players to help me in the meantime. Although I’m in the middle of the pack, I have the players to win this year.
Mixed Tout Week 12
Not a whole lot to talk about this week. Although I was ninth overall for the week, I was strong in the categories I need to be strong, so I continue to dig myself out of the hole I made for myself earlier in the year.
My hitting dominated and my pitching was weak, but ended on a strong note. I put some separation between myself and fourth place in runs and now I am just ten runs from second place. I have moved to second in home runs and I am only one home run from first place. I was watching my opponents catch up to me in RBI, but I pulled ahead and now have a 14 RBI lead for first place. I continue to do well in stolen bases. I am eighth overall, but I made great headway on catching up to seventh place. I didn’t change positions in batting average, but I’m slowly catching up to ninth place. There was a .05 difference a couple of weeks ago, but I’ve raised mine to just under .02. Another couple of weeks and that huge hole will be filled in.
Pitching continues to be a struggle. I’m fifth in wins and just one win from fourth. I continue to fall in saves as I have only one closer. I am ninth in strikeouts but I’m catching up. That leaves ERA and WHIP. I had some great outing and some weak outings. From a foundation standpoint, this team is strong. All I need to do is continue to improve in batting average, stolen bases, ERA and WHIP and I can win. I have plenty of time to do it.
With no needs I didn’t make any FAAB moves. There wasn’t much out there. We’re slowly getting healthy and should be a full strength by the All Star Break. I wasn’t happy about setbacks from Brian Roberts and Ike Davis, but I’m hopeful that they will be back soon.
Like I said, not much to report other than I’m gaining in the categories I need to gain in that that is the path to the top.
Technical Difficulties
The site where I host my spreadsheets is down. I’ll have them back up in a little bit.
Tout Wars Mixed Week 11
While I did not move up much this week in the complete standings, I have made great headway in some categories where I was lagging far behind.
Runs
I am currently third in runs, but there is a significant 17 run difference between second and third. My target is to come in third in every category so we are doing fine.
RBI
I am currently first in runs, but I’m likely to loose that position soon. At one point, I had a strong 30 RBI lead, but injuries to middle of the order hitters have caused me to loose that position. I still have a significant 17 RBI lead over third place, so I am still very strong in this position.
Home Runs
I am currently third in home runs, one home run from second place and eight home runs from first. Again, I am in a strong position.
Stolen Bases
I have made great headway here over the past couple of weeks. I fell to dead last early. I took Jimmy Rollins out of the lineup last week because of the risk of a DL trip, and he ends up not going. Fortunately, he didn’t steal a base. I need Brian Roberts to come back healthy to continue to move up here. I am currently tied for eighth, but I’m only three behind sixth. There is a significant bubble of 12 stolen bases beyond that, but my team has stolen them in bunches. I’ve had a couple of five stolen base days.
Batting Average
I really struggled with batting average. I expected I would with a core of Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds. I traded Reynolds because Ike Davis was doing so well, and I was hurting so badly in batting average and stolen bases. It turns out that Davis ends up hurt. I’m still glad that I don’t have Reynolds anymore. My batting average fell as low at .2473 and it has taken a couple of weeks, but I’m up to .2577. That is huge. I’m currently 10th, but I’m breaking through a huge bubble. 9th is .2599 and I should catch up to that soon.
Wins
I have made great headway in pitching. Wins is the first category. With the injury to Johnathon Broxton and my failure to pick up a third closer in the auction, I have focused on dominating wins. I was as low as 12th, but I have moved up to 4th place, two wins from a tie at second. I have a good core of starters and there is no reason why I shouldn’t move up to second as soon as this week.
Saves
Saves are a real problem for me, but the cost is simply too much. I discussed a trade with David Feldman for John Axford, but and deal would require me parting with Carlos Santana and I am not willing to do that, yet. The going rate for a closer off of the waiver wire has been around $20, and I’m not willing to do that. I’ve re calibrated my strategy on the assumption that I’ll be around 12th in the saves standings. Who knows, maybe Broxton will come back healthy and take back his job.
ERA
This was a great week for me in ERA. We had a very good 2.613 ERA for the week and that brought be down from from a 4.30 to a much more manageable 4.00. Having deflated a huge bubble, I am now just .002 points from 11th and .004 from 10th. This is huge, because my path to winning this league is my ability to getting my ERA into the middle of the pack. That isn’t easy when you have a ten earned run handicap from Chris Tillman alone.
WHIP
As my ERA has gone, so has my WHIP. I had a great .967 WHIP for the week and I crossed a huge bubble. I was dead last, but now I am 13th. I’m going to need a couple more great weeks to break through, I have to somehow drop my WHIP a .040 to get to 12th alone. I could, with some luck get as high as 6th. Beyond that is going to be difficult because of the damage done.
Strike Outs
My final category is strikeouts. I am currently 9th, just 3 from 8th. Again, I have been doing well here and am gaining ground.
Final Observations
I am loosing ground in RBI and Saves, but gaining ground in every other category. Once some of my key players are healthy, there is no reason why I should be in a strong position to move up. I am in this race.
Player Moves
I had some interest in Dee Gordon but expected him to be expensive. I was right. Seth Trachtman had to pay $28 for the rights to roster him. I am second overall in FAAB with $75, so I’m in a position to buy when the opportunity arises.
Overall, I’m happy with the team and didn’t see a need to spend when I have talent sitting on the DL. Ike Davis should be back around the All-Star Break. Getting him back will be a huge part of my second-half drive.
Future Cards of 2011 (Outfield)
There are a number of outfield prospects, but none of them have a clear track to a Major League full-time job. In the post-steroid era, there are some players here who have some pop.
Andy Dirks
Age: 25, Bats: L, Drafted: 2008-8-253, P66-OF
Dirks is a older prospect with average skills but good bat control and a little bit of pop. He has acceptable range in center, but he is better suited for left. He has a weak arm. That makes him a 2/3 in left and a 3/4 in center with a +2 to +1 arm. He is at best a #4 outfielder and left-handed bat off the bench.
Ben Revere
Age: 23, Bats: R, Drafted: 2007-1-28, P77-OF
I think that Ben Revere is best described as a Juan Pierre clone. Revere has no power, but has excellent hand-eye coordination and gets good wood on the ball. He has worked hard to learn to take a walk to go with his high average making him an interesting as a leadoff hitter. He uses his speed to compensate for an occasional bad jump when fielding and his arm is very weak. That makes him an outfielder-2 with a +2 arm. You can try and hide that arm in left field and use him as a lead off hitter once he gets full time at-bats which could happen in 2012.
Carlos Peguero
Age: 24, Bats: L, Drafted: NDFA, P66-OF
With the Mariners out of it in May, they dumped their veterans and started calling up some of the players they have on the farm to see what they can do. Peguero has big league power, but strikes out often. So far this year, his SO:BB is over 8:1! When he does make contact, the ball does go a long way. He does have some good speed for a player his size and could be a decent right fielder with a -1 arm. While there are some tools here, there are few skills. He is an interesting late round pick to see if he can figure something out.
Eric Thames
Age: 24, Bats: L, Drafted: 2008-7-219, P66-OF
Thames fell in the 2008 draft because of a tore quadriceps. He continued to struggle with the injury in 2009, changed his workout routine, and broke out in 2010. While he strikes out a bit too much, he is patient at the plate and he has made a point of walking more. His biggest weakness is that he struggles against good left-handed pitchers and will need to be platooned at the Major Leagues. You can see that the Jays only allowed him to face lefties sparingly. Defensively, he needs work but has the tools to be average. Depending on how things work, he could be a decent part-time, left-handed outfielder.
Jason Pridie
Age: 27, Bats: L, Drafted: 2002-2-43, V55-OF
Pridie has some speed, plays all three outfield positions and will occasionally hit one out. That makes him a fine #5 outfielder and left-handed bat off the bench for the Mets. He has little value for a Strat team unless he has some unusual platoon splits.
Jerry Sands
Age: 23, Bats: R, Drafted: 2008-25-757, P77-1B/OF/3B
Sands is an interesting prospect. A late round pick, he signed for a whopping $5,000, then got down to business moving up the ranks. He has good power but below average speed. Defensively, he is a corner outfielder-4 but could become a 3 in time. He has practiced at third base, so a position change is not out of the question.
Rene Tosoni
Age: 24, Bats: L, Drafted: 2005-36-1095, P66-OF
A very late pick for the Twins, Tosoni has all five tools rated slightly higher than average. He was moving up quickly, but missed most of 2010 with a torn labrum. The Twins put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V draft despite the injury. He is a draft and follow player who might become a fourth outfielder.
Tony Campana
Age: 25, Bats: L, Drafted: 2008-13-401, P55-OF
Campana is a one-tool player, speed. That makes him a good defensive outfielder and pinch runner. He has no power at all. It is unlikely that he’ll be more than a fifth outfielder.
